No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

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No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Slappy » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:55 pm

No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order
President Trump’s grievances about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are not his, not new, and definitely not influenced by the 2016 election or Russia.

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Sumantra Maitra By Sumantra Maitra
JULY 9, 2018
In the middle of the Peloponnesian war, Athens faced a simple but existential dilemma. Melos, an island in the middle of the Aegean, was a Spartan ally, and the existence of an independent, unconquered, and even neutral island allied with a rival land power was an unacceptable scenario for a maritime hegemon like Athens.

The Athenians dispatched a group of emissaries to discuss Melian surrender. What took place is perhaps one of the most memorable chapters of an ethical debate still relevant to modern times. The Melians pleaded ideals, and even threatened that the gods would punish Athenian hubris if they took over a noncombatant people.


The Athenians, proponents of realism, reminded the Melians that at the end of the day, Melos is an island, and the Athenians are in control of the sea. Politics, especially great power politics, isn’t about what “ought to be,” but rather what “is.” The simple reality was that Athens was a mighty maritime power, and if the Melians wanted protection, they must have it from Athens, or Athens would take them over.

The rest, as they say, is history. The Melians refused, and the Athenians wiped Melos off the map. The Spartans decided against aiding Melos. As the ancient historian Thucydides wrote of the Athenian stance: “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” In a great power world, institutions and values depend on the whims and fancies of great powers.

As President Trump heads to a fractious North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit then a meeting with Russia, it’s important to evaluate two myths that are constantly circulating in media. In the last three weeks, there hasn’t been a single day without an article lamenting that Trump is bringing about the breakup of the “liberal order” simply because he has told European countries that freeriding is over.

For example, I came across this Twitter gem, which is more or less representative of American leftist thinking about Trump’s NATO and Russia meets. One glance at the editorial boards of the Washington Post, New York Times, Economist, and Financial Times shows conformity only paralleled in sociology departments at universities.


The foreign policy establishment’s arguments are simple and are based on two pervasive myths: First, that Trump is responsible for the chaos within NATO, and second, Trump is determined to break up the liberal order. Both arguments are needless to say, flawed.

Myth 1: Trump Is Responsible for NATO’s Chaos
NATO enlargement post-Cold War was essentially a push from the liberal internationalist lobby within the Clinton administration, led by Madeleine Albright and backed by the German leaders like Volker Rühe. Evidence suggests there was significant academic opposition to NATO expansion during that time, including from the father of the strategy of Cold War containment, George F Kennan. He said NATO expansion would end up being the greatest blunder of our times.

There still remains a significant academic as well as strategic opposition to further NATO expansion, as almost everyone in the strategic community foresaw that an inexorable push of frontiers towards a former superpower like Russia would not only invite an understandable military backlash but install a hardline regime with a siege mentality within a former adversary.

Also, the cost-benefit analysis of providing an American taxpayer-funded security umbrella to corrupt, violent smaller countries not only is a heavy and needless burden based on a flawed strategy but encourages those smaller countries to risk conflict assuming that American cavalry is just around the hills.


However, the current ongoing debate on NATO funding is not that. It is not new, either. One of the strongest speeches against NATO was from former Defense Secretary Robert Gates in 2011. He highlighted, almost prophetically, that if NATO leaders failed to immediately increase their funding and improve hardware, retention, and deployment capabilities, future American presidents would find it hard to justify to the electorate why they should pay for rich countries like Germany to have bloated social security programs, and not invest more in their submarine fleet or air force. Incidentally, Germany has only four serviceable Typhoons in the Luftwaffe and has refused to increase its NATO budget.

Sen. Chuck Hagel and Obama Defense Secretary Ash Carter repeated the same warning. Some recent academic argument has suggested NATO should split its chain of command, and move American forces east in Poland and Hungary, from Germany and Belgium.

In sum, Trump’s grievances about NATO are not his, not new, and definitely not influenced by the 2016 election or Russia. European military capability atrophied due to complacency about American cavalry, when their own cash funds finer aspects of life and ever-increasing social welfare. These are valid long-term concerns of the American strategic community and are legitimate grievances about European freeriding on American blood and treasure.

It took a Trumpian slap to shake the smug complacency of European polity. Trump is instinctively mercantile and, regardless of his personal boorish behavior, tapped onto valid resentment against this ongoing alliance buck-passing and freeriding. Most importantly, Trump is reminding Europe of what Thucydides wrote a 2,500 years back. If European powers want American protection, then they should follow American rules and share the burden. Else, they are free to find their own ways.

Myth Number 2: Trump Is Breaking Up the Liberal Order

This myth is so pervasive that a near-cottage industry to purvey it grew after 2016. From books by academics and former diplomats to op-eds by pundits, journalists, and former lobbyists, all tapped on to the same hackneyed and cliched explanation of foreign policy that a mythical and organic “liberal order” has existed since 1945. Ironically, on one hand, it is an organic order, but on the other hand, it somehow is fragile enough to be destroyed by a single leader.

This is wrong, both logically and empirically. If it is indeed simply a liberal order based on norms and shared values, it would survive the absence of the superpower. If it doesn’t survive the absence of the superpower, then it is not an “order” but a sort of a hegemonic peace—a Pax Americana.

There’s nothing wrong in that, except it is imperial and unsustainable, as history suggests that no form of hegemonic peace lasts forever. The chief reason is that the relative power difference between different great powers equilibrates over time, as the population of the hegemon gets tired of providing the security of the globe. Sound familiar?

There is no evidence that there ever was a “rule-based order” for Trump to now arguably destroy. Research suggests the liberal order was a myth and a nostalgia about a world that never was. Hard military power is what always mattered on this planet as a guarantee of freedom. Trump is just blunt, genuinely conservative, and mercantile enough to remind us of that.

The European Union and some European countries claim that Russia is a gigantic threat and they need more commitment from the United States. The reality is that Trump’s administration armed the Ukrainians with lethal weapons, re-established the Second Fleet, smoked out 200 Russians in Syria in one day, and told Germans (yes, Germans) to stop the Nord Stream pipeline. Europeans, on the other hand, refuse flatly to pay their fair share for their defense and even refuse to lead America in cutting off the Russian gas supply. It’s quite natural, therefore, that EU technocrats’ protests sound hypocritical to an average American taxpayer.

In January 2017, I wrote the following about Trump, EU and NATO.
Here’s a simple word of advice to the European leaders and policy elites. An easy way to maintain an alliance is to demonstrate commitment through investment. Cut down on social spending, cut down on idiotic and redundant research like gender gaps in NATO forces, and formulate a wartime plan to channel resources towards defence. Spend less on bureaucratic and bloated command structures and more on manufacturing tanks and hardware, less on open door migrant aid, and more on Mediterranean surveillance.

If one is serious about defending liberal order, then one should be prepared to spend. After all, freedom isn’t free, and Uncle Sucker won’t be there forever. It’s everyone for themselves, and if this lesson of 2016 is forgotten, then next time, someone worse than Trump will come along, with full cabinet backing, who won’t just be indifferent, but actively hostile.
As the EU remains occupied with internal dissent, it seems that the rulers of some EU states refuse to learn those lessons. Reality might bring about more nasty surprises for them.

Sumantra Maitra is a doctoral researcher at the University of Nottingham, UK. His research is in great power-politics and neorealism. He also regularly writes for The National Interest and Quillette Magazine, and edits Bombs and Dollars blog. You can find him on Twitter @MrMaitra.

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:09 pm

I'll give Trump that. NATO is and always has been a paper tiger (just see the debacle that is Afghanistan to see how really ineffective that it is.) What Trump has done is made other NATO members realise the truth that Britain learnt over 3 decades ago. Finally they can base their defence on reality and not wishful thinking. The cavalry never were going to and never will rise over the hill to defend us.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by WilyB » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:24 am

The Don bitch slapping Angela was a great moment and her come back was fucking lame as can be. Blaming the Krauts for funding Putin while asking the US to protect them against the Russkies but refusing to pay a fair share of the burden! :D :D :D

Also this kills once and for all the conspiracy theories (very prevalent in Burkina Faso) that the Don was Vlad's puppet. :D :D :D


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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Ami Bidasse » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:30 am

Plus "chic" ! :mrgreen:

Win the “yes” needs the “no” to win against the “no” !

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 am

WilyB wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:24 am
The Don bitch slapping Angela was a great moment and her come back was fucking lame as can be. Blaming the Krauts for funding Putin while asking the US to protect them against the Russkies but refusing to pay a fair share of the burden! :D :D :D

Also this kills once and for all the conspiracy theories (very prevalent in Burkina Faso) that the Don was Vlad's puppet. :D :D :D


Trump made the claim that 60%-70% of all of Germany's energy comes from Russia. Only 20% of the German energy mix is actually natural gas, of which up to 60% is supplied by Russia. Which means that only 12% of German energy is supplied by Russia. Granted that Trump doesn't do maths at any level, how else could anyone possibly bankrupt 3 casinos, but surely someone in his entourage can count. Or is he being trolled and they're giving the poor old dear false numbers knowing full well that there is no way that he can verify the accuracy of such numbers? Not very nice of them is it?
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by WilyB » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 am

Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 am
...Or is he being trolled and they're giving the poor old dear false numbers knowing full well that there is no way that he can verify the accuracy of such numbers? Not very nice of them is it?
As I have written many times here, nowadays facts are unimportant. Only perception counts. And here my friend, Trump is The Master.

"Krauts today get 12,43% of their energy from Russia..." Normal Joe is already turned-off and stop listening.

"Krauts are getting 70% of their energy from Russia, and they give these billions and billions of dollars to the Fucking Russians while asking us to spend billions and billions of your (Normal Joe) hard earned bucks so that the Krauts may enjoy free health care, that ain't fair and trust me, vote for me and that's gonna change faster than Angela can drop on her knees!" Normal Joe is so enthused that he can't wait to vote Trump in November.

I, at times, wonder why you and your black friend can't get it?

:D :D :D
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by jeanV » Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:56 am

WilyB wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 am
I, at times, wonder why you and your black friend can't get it?
Oh, but mikgof's favorite Burkinabe friend does get it.

That's one point of difference with him I've mentioned repeatedly:

do a site search and you'll find I called Trump a gifted con artist quite a few times.

:P
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by WilyB » Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:38 pm

thai.jpg
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:54 pm

WilyB wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 am
Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 am
...Or is he being trolled and they're giving the poor old dear false numbers knowing full well that there is no way that he can verify the accuracy of such numbers? Not very nice of them is it?
As I have written many times here, nowadays facts are unimportant. Only perception counts. And here my friend, Trump is The Master.

"Krauts today get 12,43% of their energy from Russia..." Normal Joe is already turned-off and stop listening.

"Krauts are getting 70% of their energy from Russia, and they give these billions and billions of dollars to the Fucking Russians while asking us to spend billions and billions of your (Normal Joe) hard earned bucks so that the Krauts may enjoy free health care, that ain't fair and trust me, vote for me and that's gonna change faster than Angela can drop on her knees!" Normal Joe is so enthused that he can't wait to vote Trump in November.

I, at times, wonder why you and your black friend can't get it?

:D :D :D
You're right. I do get it. I just don't have to like it. It is impossible to have good governance if people go by perceptions (feelings). Facts do count. In effect when people go by perceptions instead of hard facts, they're being snowflakes. That is why I'd like the franchise to be weighted towards IQ. Higher IQ means that people generally tend to be less menstrual and vote more with their brains than their feelings. For every IQ point over 100, you get an extra vote. Not a perfect solution but it would tip the scales away from people who struggle to tie their shoelaces.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Slappy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:34 pm

Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:54 pm
WilyB wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 am
Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:47 am
...Or is he being trolled and they're giving the poor old dear false numbers knowing full well that there is no way that he can verify the accuracy of such numbers? Not very nice of them is it?
As I have written many times here, nowadays facts are unimportant. Only perception counts. And here my friend, Trump is The Master.

"Krauts today get 12,43% of their energy from Russia..." Normal Joe is already turned-off and stop listening.

"Krauts are getting 70% of their energy from Russia, and they give these billions and billions of dollars to the Fucking Russians while asking us to spend billions and billions of your (Normal Joe) hard earned bucks so that the Krauts may enjoy free health care, that ain't fair and trust me, vote for me and that's gonna change faster than Angela can drop on her knees!" Normal Joe is so enthused that he can't wait to vote Trump in November.

I, at times, wonder why you and your black friend can't get it?

:D :D :D
You're right. I do get it. I just don't have to like it. It is impossible to have good governance if people go by perceptions (feelings). Facts do count. In effect when people go by perceptions instead of hard facts, they're being snowflakes. That is why I'd like the franchise to be weighted towards IQ. Higher IQ means that people generally tend to be less menstrual and vote more with their brains than their feelings. For every IQ point over 100, you get an extra vote. Not a perfect solution but it would tip the scales away from people who struggle to tie their shoelaces.
Gee sounds an awful lot like the pro science super intelligent reasonable left :D :lol:

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i haven't heard what trump said but he may of got confused and sounded off on total energy imports from Russia
While Germany declines to spend 2 percent on defense, it appears to have enough money to build another natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany and beyond – this will be the third. Germany already imports about half of its oil and natural gas from Russia; the new pipeline will increase that to 60% and beyond. The pipelines also serve France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, among our "closest allies."

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Ami Bidasse » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:38 pm

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Young (and drunk) GWB ?

Question: Realy a accomplished mission ? :D
Win the “yes” needs the “no” to win against the “no” !

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Slappy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:53 pm

Ami Bidasse wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:38 pm
Image
Young (and drunk) GWB ?

Question: Realy a accomplished mission ? :D

standing ovation for the corrupt poet at the UN
Image

super power europe ignored

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:18 pm

Slappy wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:34 pm
[



i haven't heard what trump said but he may of got confused and sounded off on total energy imports from Russia
While Germany declines to spend 2 percent on defense, it appears to have enough money to build another natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany and beyond – this will be the third. Germany already imports about half of its oil and natural gas from Russia; the new pipeline will increase that to 60% and beyond. The pipelines also serve France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, among our "closest allies."

No shit Sherlock. Trump got confused about the numbers. Nothing new there.

As Europe spends twice as much on defence as Russia and as Russia is our main adversary, I'd say that they already spend enough despite the fact that the figure has been increasing annually for the last 4 years under the prodding of Obama.

The argument should be why has America got 800 bases worldwide? They're even in Britain and we all know damn well that if we were to be attacked, America would sit on the fence for another 32 days weighing up the pros and cons of whether to side with us or not. As the Soviet Union has collapsed, it's a safe bet that America will opt for not this time. So what fucking use is the point of having Americans stationed in Europe when both sides know that they won't be used in our defence? Take them back. Think of the money that you'll save.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Slappy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:59 pm

.
As Europe spends twice as much on defence as Russia and as Russia is our main adversary, I'd say that they already spend enough despite the fact that the figure has been increasing annually for the last 4 years under the prodding of Obama.
It certainly doesn't show when the krauts can't get 15 guys across the med
The Russians could probably be in London with thier feet up at 10 downing in less than 30days

Really we should sit it out when the muzz are burning your libraies ,art galleries , museums, and pretty much your entire culture and civilization.

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Slappy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:03 pm

I've been reading what Trump said
:lol: :lol:

He's got them frayed big time and he's behaving today :lol: :twisted:



Trump keeps up spending demands at NATO but turns on charm
Jeff Mason, William James, Robin Emmott
5 MIN

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday pressed home a new demand that allies more than double defense spending, but his European counterparts sought to avoid more tension at a NATO summit, saying the president was friendlier than expected.


Leaders’ low expectations showed the extent of European frustration with Trump’s “America first” policies as they headed into a second day of talks with the 29 members of the Western military alliance, set to focus mainly on ending the long war in Afghanistan.

Trump took to Twitter to say publicly what he told NATO leaders privately on Wednesday, calling on all allies to meet a commitment agreed in 2014 to spend 2 percent of economic output on defense to counter threats ranging from Russia’s military modernization to militant attacks on European cities.

“All NATO Nations must meet their 2% commitment, and that must ultimately go to 4%!” Trump tweeted an hour before the second day of the summit got underway.

Despite the first day’s haranguing of allies for failing to meet spending targets and accusing Germany of being a prisoner to Russian energy, Trump was mild-mannered at a private dinner on Wednesday and avoided any outbursts that many NATO diplomats had feared.

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:30 pm

“All NATO Nations must meet their 2% commitment, and that must ultimately go to 4%!” Trump tweeted an hour before the second day of the summit got underway.

You can tell that Trump doesn't do maths of any kind. The only possible reason for NATO-1 to go to 4% of GDP on defence spending is if we went on a war of aggression. It's just as well that it is so ridiculous. If it was to be taken seriously considered, then Putin would be well pissed off. He thinks that European defence would be seriously impacted now that Trump has effectively taken America out of NATO. Or is that what seems to be a stupid call for 4% of GDP actually an attempt to make NATO withdraw formally from America?
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by WilyB » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:29 am

Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:54 pm
Not a perfect solution but it would tip the scales away from people who struggle to tie their shoelaces.
That's why I wear monk strap shoes.

paraboot.jpg
Paraboot.
:D

France has been administered since 1945 by high IQ administrators from ENA and the result sucks, so your "extra votes for hi IQ" as tempting it might be, might not be the best solution.

Where The Don excels, is to translate highly complicated problems in terms that even a complete cretin might understand. Look at what he did with Kim: aren't we in a better position today than a year ago when fucking Little Rocket Man was targeting Portland, OR? The "my nuke button is bigger than yours" was pure genius to help cretins worldwide understand that the situation was critical and that it will end up badly for NoKo.

Same, what he did yesterday with Angela was textbook perfect. Brillant. Trump accusing - and rightly so - Angela for being Putin's puppet! :lol: I guess those US troops will start moving East towards Poland pretty soon.

Perceptions and common senses.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:45 am

Slappy wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:59 pm
.
As Europe spends twice as much on defence as Russia and as Russia is our main adversary, I'd say that they already spend enough despite the fact that the figure has been increasing annually for the last 4 years under the prodding of Obama.
It certainly doesn't show when the krauts can't get 15 guys across the med
The Russians could probably be in London with thier feet up at 10 downing in less than 30days

Really we should sit it out when the muzz are burning your libraies ,art galleries , museums, and pretty much your entire culture and civilization.
Excepting they're not. And you say 30 days. Last time it took you 32 days to get off the fence so it's pretty pointless Americans being in Europe at all. The show will be over long before you make up your mind.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by Mikgof » Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:47 am

WilyB wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:29 am
Mikgof wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:54 pm
Not a perfect solution but it would tip the scales away from people who struggle to tie their shoelaces.
That's why I wear monk strap shoes.


paraboot.jpg

:D
I'm fairly certain that you'd get to have quite a few votes. I do admire the self-deprecation though.
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by LeJizzOfMatoub » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:26 am

jeanV wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:56 am


do a site search and you'll find I called Trump a gifted con artist quite a few times.

:P
Name your sources, shill

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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by WilyB » Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:59 am

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nato2.jpg
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Re: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order

Post by LeJizzOfMatoub » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:24 am

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